It's the opening of media preview week at the North American International Auto Show, an event that often is welcomed by freezing temperatures, blowing snow and unrealistic optimism about the year ahead.
Things are different this year. The sun is shining, the snow is a no show and automakers--particularly the Detroit Three--are rightly upbeat about sales and profits this year.
Some analysts think sales could recover this year to nearly 15 million cars and trucks. That's below the 17 million vehicles they were selling a decade ago. But those sales were juiced to unsustainable levels by heavy discounting, easy credit and giveaway lease rates.
Chrysler, Ford and General Motors have much stronger balance sheets (and management) than they possessed just a few years ago. Labor costs are competitive with foreign automakers, thanks in no small part to the off-loading of retire health care benefit costs to a UAW-run trust.
These are companies that can be profitable in a 10 million sales year. Tack on nearly 5 million more vehicles and the Detroit Three should be money machines.
And they're also creating jobs again. Automakers and suppliers added 40,600 jobs in the United States last year and are predicted to create more than 150,000 additional jobs through 2015, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
One thing to remember: Despite their impressive turnarounds, the Detroit Three automakers haven't eliminated the business cycle. There will be an inevitable downturn. And the fortunes of automakers can turn on dime.
Japanese automakers will be even stronger competitors this year as the recover from last year's disastrous earthquake.
Foreign makes--the Hyundai Elantra and the Land Rover Range Rover Evoque--were just named the car and truck of the year, respectively, at the Detroit auto show.
But 2012 promises to be the best year domestic automakers have seen in years. Let's enjoy it.
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